News Desk, bdnews24.com
Published: 2020-03-08 02:42:53 BdST
The loss will be $8 million in the best scenario and $16 million, or 0.01 percent of the GDP, if it ends moderately, according to a new analysis by the ADB.
The spread of the deadly virus will have a significant impact on developing Asian economies through numerous channels leading to sharp declines domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions, and health effects, the Asian lender said on Friday.
“The magnitude of the economic losses will depend on how the outbreak evolves, which remains highly uncertain,” it said.
The range of scenarios explored in the analysis suggests a global impact in the range of $77 billion to $347 billion, or 0.1 percent to 0.4 percent of GDP.
In a moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviours and restrictions such as travel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach $156 billion, or 0.2 percrnt of global GDP, according to the analysis.
China would account for $103 billion of those losses—or 0.8 percent of its GDP, the ADB said.
The rest of developing Asia would lose $22 billion, or 0.2 percent of its GDP, it added.
“There are many uncertainties about COVID-19, including its economic impact,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses. We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak.”
“ADB stands ready to provide further support to its developing members in their efforts to respond to the adverse impact of COVID-19. ADB will use appropriate means to address the identified needs including through existing and new financial assistance, emergency assistance lending, policy-based lending, private sector investment, and knowledge and technical assistance,” the Manila-based lender said in a statement.