Tuesday, December 18, 2018

How climate change will cause more simultaneous disasters

  • John Schwartz, The New York Times
    Published: 2018-11-20 03:23:10 BdST

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File Photo: Damage in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach, Fla., Oct 13, 2018. By the end of this century, some parts of the world could face as many as six climate-related crises at the same time, researchers have concluded. (Johnny Milano/The New York Times)

Global warming is posing such wide-ranging risks to humanity, involving so many types of phenomena, that by the end of this century some parts of the world could face as many as six climate-related crises at the same time, researchers say.

This chilling prospect is described in a paper published Monday in Nature Climate Change, a respected academic journal, that shows the effects of climate change across a broad spectrum of problems, including heat waves, wildfires, sea level rise, hurricanes, flooding, drought and shortages of clean water.

Such problems are already coming in combination, said the lead author, Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii at Manoa. He noted that Florida had recently experienced extreme drought, record high temperatures and wildfires — and also Hurricane Michael, the powerful Category 4 storm that slammed into the Panhandle this summer. Similarly, California is suffering through the worst wildfires the state has ever seen, as well as drought, extreme heat waves and degraded air quality that threatens the health of residents.

File Photo: A woman cleans debris around a home in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, in Mexico Beach, Fla., Oct. 13, 2018. By the end of this century, some parts of the world could face as many as six climate-related crises at the same time, researchers have concluded. (Chang W. Lee/The New York Times)

File Photo: A woman cleans debris around a home in the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, in Mexico Beach, Fla., Oct. 13, 2018. By the end of this century, some parts of the world could face as many as six climate-related crises at the same time, researchers have concluded. (Chang W. Lee/The New York Times)

Things will get worse, the authors wrote. The paper projects future trends and suggests that, by 2100, unless humanity takes forceful action to curb the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change, some tropical coastal areas of the planet could be hit by as many as six such crises at a time.

That prospect is “like a terror movie that is real,” Mora said.

The authors include a list of caveats about the research: Since it is a review of papers, it will reflect some of the potential biases of science in this area, which include the possibility that scientists might focus on negative effects more than positive ones; also, the authors cite the ongoing margin of uncertainty involved in discerning the imprint of climate change from natural variability.

The paper explores the ways that climate change intensifies hazards and describes the interconnected nature of such crises. Greenhouse gas emissions, by warming the atmosphere, can enhance drought in places that are normally dry, “ripening conditions for wildfires and heat waves,” the researchers say. In wetter areas, a warmer atmosphere retains more moisture and strengthens downpours, while higher sea levels increase storm surge and warmer ocean waters can contribute to the overall destructiveness of storms.

 

© 2018 New York Times News Service